000
ABNT20 KNHC 291153
TWOAT
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Sun Sep 29 2024
For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Isaac, located several hundred miles northwest of the Azores, and
on Tropical Storm Joyce, located over the central Atlantic Ocean.
Eastern and Central Tropical Atlantic (AL90):
Showers and thunderstorms associated with an elongated area of low
pressure located a few hundred miles west-southwest of the Cabo
Verde Islands have become better organized since yesterday.
Environmental conditions are conducive for gradual development of
this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form during the
early or middle part of this week while the system initially moves
westward and then northwestward across the eastern and central
tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…medium…60 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days…high…80 percent.
Western Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico:
A broad area of low pressure located over the western Caribbean Sea
is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental
conditions appear to be conducive for gradual development, and a
tropical depression could form around the middle part of this week
while the disturbance meanders towards the west-northwest. This
system is then expected to move northwestward into the Gulf of
Mexico during the latter portion of this week, and interests in the
northwestern Caribbean Sea and along the U.S. Gulf Coast should
monitor its progress.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days…medium…50 percent.
Eastern Atlantic:
A tropical wave located near the coast of western Africa is
currently producing limited shower activity. Some gradual
development of this system is possible during the next several days
while it moves slowly westward or west-northwestward over the
eastern Atlantic Ocean.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days…low…20 percent.
$$
Forecaster Blake/Mahoney
